The HDA Tables and the Cluster Tables are two totally different products, not only because one has been developed for 1×2 betting and the other for Over/Under betting but especially because one is focusing on system betting (HDA tables) and the other on value betting (Cluster Tables).
That doesn’t mean that system betting if carried out properly doesn’t contain ‘value’. Of course, it does! There is no system in this universe that can earn money if mathematical advantage is not on your side.
However, as we frequently receive this question it must confuse many readers, so here’s a brief explanation on the differences between ‘system betting’ and ‘value betting’.
System betting is a predetermined selection of bets that when combined represent a profitable betting scenario. Systems allow the gambler to have an edge or an advantage.
However, system betting requires a huge amount of discipline and follow through from the start to the end (or to a suitable closure point in profit), preferably without missing betting on any matches included in the system. This means that if the system requires you to place 17 bets through the whole season on a certain selection criterion, then you really should place them all for best results!
Here’s an example: In 2015, a German HDA table user wrote to us suggesting that he could get a positive return by backing the underdog in all 17 home games of SV Hamburg with 100 unit flat stakes. This was a very simple system and he regularly updated us about his progress. The problem was that after three consecutive losses he abandoned the system and here you can read what exactly went wrong: The Gambler’s Worst Enemy: Emotions!
If only he had continued without faltering, he would have received a very good return!
Therefore, system betting is only for those who are dedicated and fully able to switch-off their emotions, or who are capable of programming a bot to place automatic and unemotional bets for them.
A big challenge with system betting is, that at some point the bookmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. This means that a former well-working system may cease to work and the system bettor needs to completely review his/her system.
Value Betting is a totally different approach and it is said that it is one of the best techniques for gaining profit with betting. A value bet is the one where the chances of the bet winning are better than the odds suggest and all you need to do is to take advantage of this situation.
On contrary to system betting, value betting doesn’t require constant attention to any league and fixture lists can be dipped into entirely at your leisure. There are no time constraints or pressure to have to place bets.
Value betting relies on identifying over-priced or under-priced bets. For example, find as many of them as possible and play them as a weekend portfolio. This provides diversification of risk and with a proper staking plan and maybe weighting the stakes accordingly, all bets can be placed at the same time and then left alone.
Normally, when the calculations have been carried out correctly, each round of matches should produce a positive return. Only in very exceptional circumstances may a round turn out to be negative – in cases where there are more outliers than usual, which is always possible.
I wrote about an anomaly that happened on the 5/2/2011 in the EPL; an anomaly that happens statistically only once every 760 rounds of matches, or the equivalent of once every 20 seasons! Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Therefore, you’ll have to make a decision:
Do you feel that System Betting is more suitable to your needs and personality (there you don’t have to calculate so much but simply stick to the system), or are you more into Value Betting (calculating each individual match and compiling a portfolio of bets for each round)?
Can you guarantee that you will be able to follow through the same system for an entire season without deviating, or would you prefer to do some experimenting as you go along?
It really depends what your answer is to enable you to decide if you prefer the HDA Tables (system betting) or the Course book and Cluster Tables (value betting). Please don’t make the choice because one is 1×2 betting and the other Over/Under betting. We simply have not yet published a course book on 1×2 odds calculation (value betting) or Over/Under inflection point tables (system betting).