Have you ever wondered what the different Goal Lines mean?
You can bet on Over/Under 2.5, or Over/Under 2,25 or Over/Under 2. But what are Over 2.5 bets, or even 2.25? There are no half goals! Or quarter goals! It doesn’t seem to make sense. Does it?
We will explain what the different Goal Lines signify and after you’ve finished the article you will never be confused again!
Betting on .5 Goals
One of the most common bet types is Over/ Under .5 goals.
Obviously, there is no way for half a goal to be scored in a game. The expression .5 is just an aid to ensure that it is clear on what you are betting.
For example, if you place a bet on Over/Under 2.5 goals, then the .5 is the ‘turning point’. You win if there are at least 3 goals scored, and you lose if the match ends with less than 2 goals scored.
Here’s an example…
If you still have difficulties understanding the concept, here’s another article on the .5 bet: A Brief Introduction to Over Under Goals Betting.
Betting on Goal Lines with Whole Numbers
Bets on whole numbers are often called Goal Lines or Asian Goal Lines. Although, technically, this isn’t correct as all bets described here are ‘goal lines’, but we will be using the term as it’s widely used by punters and bookmakers.
They are somewhat similar to Asian Handicap betting on the 1×2 result. As the name suggests, the possibility of a refund exists if a certain result comes in, in this case the ‘Goal Line’.
Similar to the AH, if the match finishes in a draw result (= ‘goal line’), it’s a “push”. The punter gets their money back. Otherwise, if there are less goals scored than the goal line, the stake is lost, and if more goals are scored, it is a win.
In the above example, if you were to bet on Over 2 Goals then you get your stake back (push) if the final score is exactly 2 goals (e.g. 2-0, 1-1, 0-2).
All the other Goal Lines naturally follow the same pattern.
Betting on .75 Goals or .25 Goals – or – Whole Number, .75 or .25
If the .5 bets are combined with Asian Goal Line bets, then you get .75 or .25 Goals bets. Half of your stake is placed on the .5 bet whilst the other half is placed on the Asian Goal Line bet.
These bets are often shown as either Over 2.25 – or – Over 2, 2.5.
For example, if you place a bet of £20 on Over 2, 2.5 it means that you are placing a split bet. £10 on the 2 Goals Asian Goal Line, and £10 on Over 2.5 Goals.
If the match finishes…
- with 3 or more goals, then you will receive the winnings of both bets
- with exactly 2 goals, half of the stake will be returned as it was a push (2 Goals Asian Goal Line), and you will lose the other half (Over 2.5 bet)
- with less than 2 goals… your entire stake is lost
The same applies to the .75 bets, as shown below:
In this example you place a £20 bet on the Over 2.5, 3 goal line. Again, you would be placing a split bet. £10 on the 3 Goals Asian Goal Line and £10 on Over 2.5 Goals.
If this match finishes…
- with 4 or more goals, you will receive the winnings of both bets
- with exactly 3 goals, half of the stake will be returned as it was a push (3 Goals Asian Goal Line), but you will win the other half (Over 2.5 bet)
- with 2 or less goals… your entire stake is lost
To be honest, I would recommend keeping your hands away from these bets, although it may sound tempting to get half of the stake back. Although these are referred to as being a single bet they are actually two completely different bets rolled into one!
If you do not really understand odds calculation and probabilities, then it is definitely a bet which bookmakers love! They can adjust the pricing as they like, without the average punter fully understanding the maths behind it, ensuring that the mathematical advantage lies with the bookmaker.
Anyway, the silver lining is that it is quite unlikely to be exposed to the temptation as these bets are rarely offered by European bookmakers.
Here is another diagram to demonstrating split bets:
Betting for Profit on Goals
At the end of the day the goal of each punter should be betting for profit. Am I right?
Bookmakers make a living from betting by using maths. They analyse and calculate the chances of an outcome and then price their bets. Of course, they make sure that the mathematical advantage is on their side, just like anyone operating a game of chance (e.g. Casinos).
The punter who relies only on gut feeling does not have a chance against the bookmakers.
However, with Over/Under Goal bets the punter at least has a chance to start understanding the statistics behind the bet. It isn’t too difficult to calculate the probabilities of the various results and number of goals in a game and to then find value bets.
If you are interested in starting to bet for profit, then you should seriously consider buying our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course. For the first volume, we have chosen to write about the Over/Under goal market as this is the easiest betting market to teach the fundamentals of statistics and maths on, without the need to dive deeper into more advanced formulas and concepts. Give it a try!